Underwrite a Houston Fix-and-Flip Deal

Run a fictional Houston flip and build a sourced deal desk, memo, and close-out.

Introduction

30 Second Summary

The asking price tells only part of a house's story. Repair bills and loan timing can erase the expected profit.

In this project, you will run a fictional Houston house flip from lead to exit. Claude will challenge each claim while a working deal desk tests whether the deal survives both sale and keep exits.

What You'll Build

Your finished deal desk will show whether a fictional Houston house still works after every sourced cost and outcome is counted.

By the end of this project, you'll have:

A sourced underwriting record that separates the wholesaler's claims from your own judgment.
A working deal desk that calculates sale and keep exits while tracing every input to its source.
A complete decision trail that carries your recommendation through the lender review and final result.
Secret Mission: Audit your original judgment after the outcome is known without rewriting what you believed before the deal ran.

Are there any prerequisites?

No real estate experience is required.

You need a Claude account and Windows File Explorer. The project covers the full setup.

Before We Start

An unsupported after-repair value can inflate the expected sale price. Before any hands-on work, say aloud that you will build a sourced fictional Houston fix-and-flip underwriting record because testing the wholesaler's after-repair value claim protects every later decision.

Set Your Investment Position

A house deal has meaning only when you compare it with your available capital. Your required profit creates the boundary for every choice that follows.

In this step, you'll create the local record for your simulation. You'll also lock your buy box before any houses influence your judgment.

In this step, get ready to:

Create a local workspace for your simulation.
Set up two isolated Claude chats.
Record your investment position in Deal Notes.

Create the local workspace

Your project folder keeps every note and export from the fictional deal in one place. You'll create it with Windows File Explorer before opening either simulation chat.

Press Windows logo key + E to open File Explorer.
Select Desktop in the left sidebar.
Right-click an empty area in the Desktop view.
Select New from the menu.
Select Folder.
Name the folder Underwrite a Houston Fix-and-Flip Deal.

Good start. You now have one local home for the complete underwriting record.

Why keep one project folder?

The simulation produces notes and several exported reports. One folder makes it easier to prove which files belong to the same fictional deal.

Create two isolated Claude chats

The game master controls the hidden fictional case. A separate builder creates tools without seeing the hidden packet.

This separation protects the simulation from accidental leaks. It also keeps the builder from doing your investment judgment.

Go to Claude in your web browser.
Sign in to your account.
Use the account creation option first if you do not have an account.
Press the Windows key if browser sign-in fails.
Type Claude into Windows search.
Press Enter to use Claude Desktop.

Can't access Claude?

Confirm that your internet connection works before trying the web client again. Use Claude Desktop when the browser sign-in flow does not complete.

If neither client accepts your account, help me troubleshoot access to Claude without losing this project setup.

Start the first new chat for the game master.
Collapse the reasoning panel if one is visible.
Keep the message unsent while you add the three prompt sections below.
Paste this first section into the message composer:

You are the game master for a timed, fictional Houston house-flip simulation. You play every person except me. I am the investor. Never do the investor's judgment, selection, calculations, recommendation, negotiation decision, stop decisions, lesson, or self-score for me.

This is a study simulation, not legal, tax, lending, or investment advice. Use no real person's data. Use clearly fictional people, companies, and property addresses. Every number and term you give me must remain internally consistent for the whole simulation.

HIDDEN SOURCE-OF-TRUTH PACKET
Before your first reply, create and keep hidden one complete case packet. Do not print, summarize, hint at, or expose it until I send the CHECK instruction after my close-out report exists.

The packet must contain:
1. My position: available savings, relevant experience, acceptable property type and Houston area, risk constraints, and the profit goal I must turn into my own buy box.
2. At least three houses controlled by one wholesaler through contracts. For each house, create the wholesaler's asking price, claimed ARV, claimed repairs, assignment fee treatment, occupancy, contract status, and a hidden lowest acceptable assignment price. The wholesaler must make clear that he is assigning a contract interest and does not own the house.
3. For the house I select, create three to five sold comparables with sale date, distance, size, condition, sale price, and an adjustment issue. Make at least one comp weak enough that a careful investor should reject or discount it.
4. A contractor bid with line items, repair duration, permit assumptions, contingency position, and a draw-aware work sequence.
5. Hard money terms: percent of price, percent of repairs, cap percent of appraised ARV, lender's appraised ARV, annual rate, points, term, extension terms, draw stages, inspection or draw fees, and any minimum-interest or other material condition.
6. Harris Central Appraisal District tax value, a fictional insurance quote, monthly utilities, monthly taxes and insurance, acquisition closing-cost quote, selling-cost assumption, and any other source facts needed by the requested model.
7. At least three ways to cover the cash the hard money loan does not cover. Give each an amount available, direct cost, control or repayment terms, and risk. Do not choose among them.
8. Keep-exit inputs: rent, vacancy percent, repairs percent, management percent, refinance percent of value, refinance rate, refinance years, and refinance conditions.
9. One material hidden fact. Choose one category: title commitment, seller disclosure, flood history or map, permit or red-tag history, utility condition, property condition, or assignment disclosure. Record one exact source role and one exact question, allowing a semantically equivalent wording, that unlocks it. Do not reveal it to a broad request such as "anything else?" If I never ask the right source the right question, reveal the fact only when it becomes an actual variance or when CHECK mode begins.
10. A closing-date puzzle with an acceptance date, a stated timing rule, at least one weekend or named holiday issue, and one correct closing date.
11. A coherent event path with four stops: wiring, rehab complete with sell-or-keep choice, inspection, and sale-or-refinance. Each stop needs planned facts, actual facts, a decision required from me, and a financial consequence. Keep all later events consistent with my decisions.
12. A sale outcome and a refinance outcome so my chosen exit can run. Also keep the unchosen exit for CHECK mode.
13. A complete answer key using the formulas in my deal desk brief, plus the exact score evidence for all six parts.

What does this section do?

This section assigns the fictional roles. It also creates the hidden case packet before the simulation begins.

The game master plays every person except the investor.
The packet fixes the deal facts before you make a choice.
The answer key stays hidden until the final check.

Paste this second section directly below the first section without sending the message:

CONTROL RULES
- Reveal only facts that the role I address would reasonably know.
- Answer as that role. Label the role at the start of the reply.
- Do not calculate the 70 percent screen, ARV, maximum offer, loan amount, total cost, cash in, profit, profit on cash, refinance payment, cash flow, or recommendation for me before CHECK mode.
- Do not correct a bad assumption unless the source I ask would expose it.
- If I ask for a number you did not include in the hidden packet, create it once, add it to the packet with its source, and keep it fixed.
- If I give a lender a number that conflicts with a source already revealed, ask me to reconcile it. Never silently repair it.
- Treat an unstated fact as unknown. Never turn an unknown into zero.
- Keep the card hidden from me. Do not ask me to upload, attach, or supply any packet, file, or instructions.
- Do not mention CHECK mode, the hidden fact, the hidden floor, future events, or the answer key until the CHECK instruction arrives.

FIRST REPLY
State only my position. Give no houses, calculations, advice, checklist, or suggested answer. End by waiting for my buy box, walk-away rule, and one-line prediction.

FIND IT
When I ask the wholesaler for his houses, play the wholesaler and give all current houses using only his claimed numbers. Do not screen them. After I select one, keep the other houses available for CHECK mode.

ANALYZE IT
Play each source I address, including the listing agent, contractor, lender, appraisal district, insurer, utility contact, title or closing contact, seller or wholesaler, permit contact, inspector, and any other careful-Houston-buyer source. Give only the requested facts. Preserve the one hidden fact until I ask its recorded source the recorded question.

FUND, DECIDE AND OFFER
When I ask for funding choices, reveal at least three packet options with amount, cost, terms, and risk. Do not choose one. When I paste my decision memo, switch to the hard money lender. Test only the truth, traceability, cash-to-close, draw timing, repayment, and downside in my memo. Ask one unanswered lender question as the final line of your reply. Wait for my answer. Then play the wholesaler for my offer and negotiate consistently against the hidden floor. Never tell me the floor.

What do these controls protect?

These controls limit each fictional source to facts that role should know. They also reserve every calculation and decision for you.

Paste this final section directly below the second section:

CLOSE AND RUN
When I say I am ready to close, give the closing-date puzzle and wait for one date with reasoning. Then tell me whether it is correct. Run the deal one stop at a time in this order: wiring; rehab complete and sell or keep; inspection; sale or refinance. At each stop, reveal the event, wait for my decision, and do not continue until I state the decision and log it. If I passed on the house, run the same deal from the wholesaler's hidden lowest price after I ask you to do so.

EXIT
After the final event, give only the actual outcome facts needed to update my deal desk and close-out report. Do not compare them with the hidden answer key. Do not score me.

CHECK MODE
Enter CHECK mode only after I paste the separate CHECK instruction. Then follow it exactly and reveal the hidden packet, answer key, missed fact, alternative exit, wholesaler floor, and scoring evidence. Do not rewrite my earlier choices.

MEMO READER: When I paste a decision memo, read it as the lender, test its traceability and cash-to-close logic, then ask one unanswered lender question as the final line of your reply.

How does the simulation finish?

This section controls closing and the four execution stops. It keeps the outcome hidden until your close-out report exists.

The final line also tells the game master how to review your decision memo as the lender.

Confirm that the complete message ends with the MEMO READER: line.
Send the completed message to the game master.

You'll see only your fictional investor position. The game master waits for your buy box before revealing any houses.

Did the game master reveal too much?

Start a fresh chat if the reply includes houses or calculations. Paste all three prompt sections into one message before sending it.

If the role still behaves incorrectly, help me check whether my game master prompt is complete.

Start a second new Claude chat.
Keep the game master card out of this second chat.
Make the following text the first message in the builder chat:

You are the builder agent. Create a Claude Doc named Deal Notes, then wait for the deal desk brief.

Why use a separate builder chat?

The builder creates Claude Docs without access to the hidden packet. Its first message fixes that limited role before any deal facts arrive.

Send the builder message.

You'll see a Claude Doc named Deal Notes. The builder then waits for the deal desk brief.

Open Settings if the builder cannot create Deal Notes.
Select Capabilities.
Turn on Code execution and file creation.
Turn on Create and edit files if your settings use the updated label.
Return to the builder chat.
Send the builder message again.

Still missing Deal Notes?

Confirm that the file-creation capability remains enabled after you leave Settings. Refresh Claude before sending the builder message again.

If the Doc still does not appear, help me troubleshoot Claude file creation.

Use the export control in Deal Notes.
Choose Word as the export format.
Return to File Explorer.
Select Downloads in the left sidebar.
Select the exported Deal Notes.docx file.
Press Ctrl+X to cut the file.
Return to the Underwrite a Houston Fix-and-Flip Deal folder.
Press Ctrl+V to place the file in the folder.

That's the workspace secured. Deal Notes now exists in Claude and as a local Word file.

Commit your investment position

Your investor position gives you the facts needed to set boundaries. Writing those boundaries before seeing a lead reduces the pull of an attractive asking price.

Return to the game master chat.
Read the fictional investor position.
Switch back to the builder chat.
Open Deal Notes.
Record the acceptable property type under Buy box.
Add the acceptable Houston area.
Add your top price.
Add your required profit.

Why commit before seeing houses?

A written position gives you a standard for judging every lead. It prevents a wholesaler's claims from quietly changing your limits.

Your prediction becomes a timestamp for your original thinking. The final review can test whether your reasoning held up without rewriting the past.

Write one sentence under Walk-away that names the condition that makes you stop.
Write one line under Prediction that answers whether the deal process will work.
Add your reason to the prediction line.
Leave the prediction unchanged for the rest of the simulation.

Replacing the empty Word export is safe. Your Claude Doc remains available if you need to export it again.

Export the updated Deal Notes document as a Word file.
Return to Downloads in File Explorer.
Select the newly exported Deal Notes.docx file.
Press Ctrl+X to cut the updated file.
Return to the Underwrite a Houston Fix-and-Flip Deal folder.
Press Ctrl+V to paste the updated file.
Select the replacement option if Windows asks about the existing file.

Before you check, which records should prove that your position was fixed before any houses appeared? Form your prediction first.

Confirm that Deal Notes.docx appears in the local project folder.
Return to Deal Notes in the builder chat.
Confirm that the buy box contains all four limits.
Confirm that the walk-away rule appears below the buy box.
Confirm that the one-line prediction remains unchanged.
Return to the game master chat.
Confirm that its reply contains only your fictional investor position.
Return to the builder chat.

You should see two separate roles with no hidden case details in the builder chat. Your local folder should contain the updated Word export.

✔️ My investment position is locked

Strong work. Your workspace now preserves the limits you set before seeing a single house.

ⓧ I'd like to double check the setup

Check that the local folder is named Underwrite a Houston Fix-and-Flip Deal.
Check that the game master chat contains the complete simulation card.
Check that the game master has supplied only your fictional investor position.
Check that the builder chat starts with the Deal Notes request.
Check that the Claude Doc is named Deal Notes.
Check that Deal Notes contains your complete buy box.
Check that Deal Notes contains your walk-away rule.
Check that Deal Notes contains your unchanged one-line prediction.
Check that Deal Notes.docx is inside the local project folder.

Your investment position is now fixed before the first lead appears. Next, you'll screen the wholesaler's houses against those limits.

Screen and Select a Lead

Your buy box now sets the boundary for every lead. It stops an attractive property description from moving your target.

Your walk-away rule is also fixed. Your prediction remains unchanged.

The only property numbers available now come from the wholesaler. You will use one fast screen to compare every lead before choosing one to investigate.

In this step, get ready to:

Collect every current assignment lead from the wholesaler.
Calculate a quick-screen maximum offer for every lead.
Select one house without treating its claimed value as proven.

Ask for every lead

In this simulation, the wholesaler controls contracts for several fictional houses. Each assignment lead gives you a price to screen before deeper investigation.

Switch back to the game master chat from earlier.
Ask the game master to act as the wholesaler by sending this message:

Wholesaler, give me all houses you currently control.

Why Ask for Every House?

One complete list lets you apply the same screen to every lead. This keeps the comparison tied to your fixed position.

Read the complete wholesaler response.
Switch back to the Deal Notes document from earlier.
Record every listed house in Deal Notes.
Record each lead's asking price.
Label each ARV as Wholesaler's claimed ARV.
Label each repair estimate as Wholesaler's claimed repairs.

Good. Deal Notes now preserves the wholesaler's full list without turning a sales claim into your conclusion.

Missing a Lead or Seeing Calculations?

Tell the game master to follow the FIND IT instruction from its existing simulation card if the list appears incomplete.
Ask the game master to return only the wholesaler's claimed facts if it calculates a screen for you.

Get help correcting the game master response.

Run the quick screen

The 70 percent rule gives every lead the same first-pass test. The calculation uses only the numbers available at this stage.

Use this exact formula for every house recorded in Deal Notes:

Wholesaler's claimed ARV × 0.70 − wholesaler's claimed repairs = quick-screen maximum offer

What Does This Formula Do?

Multiplying the claimed ARV by 0.70 creates the rule's starting ceiling.
Subtracting the claimed repairs reduces that ceiling for the stated renovation work.
The result gives you one maximum-offer figure for comparing the lead with its asking price.

Before you calculate, which asking prices do you expect to sit below the quick-screen result?

Write the first lead's calculation beneath its recorded facts.
Calculate the first lead's quick-screen maximum offer.
Repeat the calculation for every remaining lead.
Label every result as Quick-screen maximum offer.
Compare each lead's asking price with its quick-screen maximum offer.
Record whether each asking price sits above or below its quick-screen maximum offer.

You should see one quick-screen maximum offer beneath every lead. Each lead should also show whether its asking price sits above or below that amount.

Does a Result Look Wrong?

Recalculate the claimed ARV multiplication using 0.70.
Subtract the claimed repairs after completing the multiplication.
Check that you used the numbers from the same house.

Help me check a 70 percent quick-screen calculation.

The completed calculations can now rank the leads. Their limits also become visible.

What Did the Screen Leave Open?

The wholesaler's claimed ARV remains unverified.
The wholesaler's claimed repairs remain unverified.
Financing costs sit outside the formula.
Holding costs sit outside the formula.
Selling costs sit outside the formula.
Draw timing remains unresolved.
Unknown costs remain unresolved.

Select one house

The quick screen has completed its narrow job. You now have a consistent basis for choosing one lead to investigate.

Review every quick-screen result against the corresponding asking price.
Choose one house that survives the quick screen.
Record your selected house here: your selected house.
Find the selected house in Deal Notes.
Write one line explaining why the house survives the quick screen.
Write one line naming the wholesaler claim you will test first.

Your selection note should contain exactly two lines. Neither line should describe the claimed ARV as proven.

Switch back to the game master chat from earlier.
Communicate your selection to the wholesaler by sending this message:

Wholesaler, I selected [[SELECTED_HOUSE="your selected house"]].

What Does This Message Do?

This message locks in the house that continues through the simulation. The game master can now preserve the remaining leads for the later check.

You should receive a wholesaler response that recognizes your selected house.

Did the Wholesaler Recognize a Different House?

Check that the house in your message matches the selected house in Deal Notes.
Send the corrected selection before continuing.

Help me correct a selected-house mismatch.

Deal Notes is your working record. Its Word export keeps an updated local snapshot in the project folder.

Switch back to the Deal Notes document from earlier.
Export the updated document as a Word file using the same process from earlier.
Save the export as Deal Notes.docx inside the Underwrite a Houston Fix-and-Flip Deal folder.
Replace the earlier Word copy if Windows asks.
Return to the Underwrite a Houston Fix-and-Flip Deal folder in File Explorer.

You should see the updated Deal Notes.docx file in the local project folder.

Before you review the finished notes, do you expect any recorded line to treat the claimed ARV as proven?

Verify that every lead has an ARV labeled as a wholesaler claim.
Verify that every lead has repairs labeled as a wholesaler claim.
Verify that every lead has a written quick-screen calculation.
Verify that every lead has an asking-price comparison.
Count exactly two selection lines beneath the chosen house.
Confirm that neither selection line treats the claimed ARV as proven.

You should see a complete screen for every lead. The selected house should have exactly two judgment lines beneath it.

Your shortlist is locked in. Next, you will replace sales claims with sourced facts before deciding what the house is worth.

Build and Verify the Deal Desk

Your quick screen narrowed the fictional leads to one house. The screen still relies on the wholesaler's claimed after-repair value (ARV) and repairs.

Now you'll use Claude to build a deal desk that works offline. The desk will connect each input to a trace table before calculating the sale and keep exits.

In this step, get ready to:

Build one self-contained deal desk that saves data and creates the required exports.
Calibrate every sale and keep calculation against a known-answer case.
Replace the wholesaler's claims with sourced facts for the selected house.

Build the offline deal desk

A self-contained browser file keeps the model in one place. Local saving and backup export protect the record after the builder chat closes.

Switch back to the builder Claude chat from earlier.
Expand the deal desk brief below fully.
Copy the entire brief as one block:

Build me a deal desk for one house flip. It works offline and saves the deal.

Inputs, each with a source: price; ARV and its comps; repairs; closing costs; the loan's percents of price and repairs and of the appraised ARV; rate; points; months held; taxes, insurance and utilities a month; selling-cost percent; savings; other sources with their cost; to keep it: rent, vacancy, repairs and management percents, and the refinance's percent of value, rate and years.

Show: maximum offer (ARV times 0.70 minus repairs) for each ARV; the loan (the lesser of price percent of price plus repairs percent of repairs, and cap percent of appraised ARV); points; interest (loan times rate, divided by 12, times months); holding (monthly costs times months); selling (sale price times its percent); total cost (all of these plus price, closing costs and repairs); profit (sale price less total cost and other sources' cost); cash in (price, closing costs, repairs and points less the loan, plus interest and holding); profit on cash (profit divided by cash in); cash short or left (savings less cash in); profit at a second sale price (redo selling and total cost); to keep it: the refinance loan, its payment, monthly cash flow (rent less vacancy, repairs and management, less the payment, taxes and insurance) and cash back (refinance loan less hard money loan).

Also: a funding table (option, amount, cost, risk); a variance log (event, planned, actual, decision); exports, each with a trace table: the decision memo, the loan request package (the ask, the house, me as borrower, sources and uses, the lender's tests met) and the close-out report (planned against actual, the exit, the score, the prediction). Leave blank for me: recommendation, risks, what would change it, the lender's answer and the lesson.

What the Brief Creates

The sale side calculates the maximum offer, hard-money loan, total cost, cash required, profit, and downside result.
The keep side calculates the refinance loan, payment, monthly cash flow, and cash returned.
The supporting tables preserve funding choices, execution variances, and the source behind every number.

Paste the complete brief into the builder chat.
Send the brief to start the build.

Claude should create a working preview with inputs, calculations, tables, and export controls.

Require the builder to produce one file instead of separate tools.
Require the browser file to retain the saved deal after it closes.
Require a backup export for the saved deal data.
Require print-ready decision memo, loan request package, and close-out report exports with trace tables.
Tell the builder to return to the working preview if it exposes code.
Export the completed browser file into the existing `Underwrite a Houston Fix-and-Flip Deal` folder.
Rename the exported file to `Deal desk.html` in Windows File Explorer.
Open `Deal desk.html` from the project folder.

You should see the complete deal desk load in your browser. Its sale model, keep model, funding table, variance log, backup control, and report controls should all be available.

Seeing Code or Several Files?

Tell the builder to return to the working preview and provide one self-contained browser file.
Confirm that the exported filename ends with `.html` before opening it from Windows File Explorer.

Ask for help with getting the builder back to one working browser file.

Calibrate and test the saved desk

A calibration case is a model test with known inputs and known answers. Exact matches prove that the formulas work before fictional deal facts influence your judgment.

Return to the local `Deal desk.html` file.
Enter the known-answer calibration case using these values:

CALIBRATION INPUTS
Price: $100,000
ARV and sale price: $180,000
Repairs: $20,000
Closing costs: $3,000
Loan percent of price: 80%
Loan percent of repairs: 100%
Loan cap percent of appraised ARV: 65%
Lender appraised ARV: $170,000
Annual hard money rate: 12%
Points: 2%
Months held: 6
Taxes per month: $200
Insurance per month: $150
Utilities per month: $100
Selling-cost percent: 8%
Savings: $50,000
Other source amount and cost: $0 and $0
Second sale price: $160,000
Keep rent: $1,800 per month
Vacancy: 5% of rent
Repairs reserve: 5% of rent
Management: 8% of rent
Refinance percent of value: 75%
Refinance annual rate: 8%
Refinance term: 30 years

Why Use Separate Calibration Data?

These round numbers test the desk without changing the fictional deal. They also make formula differences easier to trace.

Use `Calibration example, this page` as the source for every calibration input. This keeps test data separate from the game master's source responses.

Set every calibration input source to `Calibration example, this page`.
Use the desk's save control to store the calibration case.

Before you compare the results, do you expect every sale and keep calculation to match on the first build?

Compare the desk's calculated outputs with this reference:

EXPECTED RESULTS
Maximum offer: $106,000
Price-plus-repairs loan test: $100,000
Appraised-ARV loan cap: $110,500
Hard money loan, the lesser result: $100,000
Points: $2,000
Interest: $6,000
Holding costs: $2,700
Selling costs at $180,000: $14,400
Total cost at $180,000: $148,100
Profit at $180,000: $31,900
Cash in: $33,700
Profit on cash: 94.66%
Cash left: $16,300
Selling costs at $160,000: $12,800
Total cost at $160,000: $146,500
Profit at $160,000: $13,500
Refinance loan: $135,000
Monthly refinance principal-and-interest payment: $990.58
Monthly keep cash flow: $135.42
Cash back before refinance costs: $35,000

What Exact Matching Proves

The reference covers loan limits, financing costs, holding costs, sale costs, cash requirements, and both exits. One difference can flow into several later results.

Match every stated amount exactly. A rounding difference that changes a decision needs correction.

Verify the desk's formulas independently with the hand check below:

HAND CHECK
Maximum offer = $180,000 × 0.70 − $20,000 = $106,000.
Loan test one = $100,000 × 0.80 + $20,000 × 1.00 = $100,000.
Loan test two = $170,000 × 0.65 = $110,500. Use the lesser, $100,000.
Points = $100,000 × 0.02 = $2,000.
Interest = $100,000 × 0.12 ÷ 12 × 6 = $6,000.
Holding = ($200 + $150 + $100) × 6 = $2,700.
Selling = $180,000 × 0.08 = $14,400.
Total cost = $100,000 + $3,000 + $20,000 + $2,000 + $6,000 + $2,700 + $14,400 = $148,100.
Profit = $180,000 − $148,100 = $31,900.
Cash in = $100,000 + $3,000 + $20,000 + $2,000 − $100,000 + $6,000 + $2,700 = $33,700.
Profit on cash = $31,900 ÷ $33,700 = 94.66%.
Cash left = $50,000 − $33,700 = $16,300.
Second-price selling = $160,000 × 0.08 = $12,800.
Second-price total cost = $100,000 + $3,000 + $20,000 + $2,000 + $6,000 + $2,700 + $12,800 = $146,500.
Second-price profit = $160,000 − $146,500 = $13,500.
Refinance loan = $180,000 × 0.75 = $135,000.
The refinance payment is the fixed-rate monthly principal-and-interest payment for $135,000 at 8% over 360 months = $990.58.
Vacancy = $1,800 × 0.05 = $90. Repairs reserve = $90. Management = $1,800 × 0.08 = $144.
Monthly cash flow = $1,800 − $90 − $90 − $144 − $990.58 − $200 − $150 = $135.42.
Cash back = $135,000 − $100,000 = $35,000.

How the Hand Check Helps

The hand check shows which inputs belong in each formula. It gives you a direct path back to the first incorrect calculation.

The fixed-rate refinance payment uses the loan amount, annual rate, and full term. Taxes and insurance stay in the separate monthly cash-flow calculation.

Compare every calculated field with the expected result and hand check.
Return to the builder chat if one result differs.
Report the observed result and the expected result to the builder.
Export the corrected desk over the existing `Deal desk.html` file.
Repeat the calibration until every value matches exactly.

Good work. Your deal desk now has a known-answer baseline for both exit paths.

Going offline can feel disruptive. Your open chats stay in place while the browser file proves it can stand alone.

Before you take it offline, do you think a changed price will survive a full close and reopen?

Save the original calibration case in the deal desk.
Disconnect your Windows computer from the internet.
Return to the `Underwrite a Houston Fix-and-Flip Deal` folder in Windows File Explorer.
Open `Deal desk.html` from that folder.
Change the calibration price from `$100,000` to `$101,000`.
Read the price-plus-repairs loan test.

You should see the price-plus-repairs loan test change from `$100,000` to `$100,800`. Other price-dependent results should change too.

Close the browser tab containing the deal desk.
Reopen `Deal desk.html` from Windows File Explorer.
Read the saved price.

You should still see `$101,000`. The price-plus-repairs loan test should still show `$100,800`.

Restore the calibration price to `$100,000`.
Save the restored calibration case.
Read the maximum offer, hard-money loan, profit, profit on cash, refinance payment, and monthly keep cash flow.

You should again see `$106,000`, `$100,000`, `$31,900`, `94.66%`, `$990.58`, and `$135.42`. This proves the calculations and local persistence work without the internet.

Reconnect your Windows computer to the internet.

Did the Saved Value Disappear?

Confirm that you reopened the same `Deal desk.html` file from the project folder.
Tell the builder that the exported browser file must retain saved values after closing and reopening.
Repeat the offline test after replacing the file with the corrected export.

Ask for help with fixing offline persistence in the exported deal desk.

Replace claims with sourced facts

The quick screen treated the wholesaler's claims as inputs. This pass asks each fictional source for the facts that role could reasonably know.

Why Source Roles Matter

Accepted sold comparables support your learner ARV. The tax appraisal stays a separate tax source.

A named role and response let you trace each input back to its origin. Missing facts remain visible as uncertainty.

Switch back to the game master chat from earlier.
Ask the listing agent for recent nearby sold comps with similarity, sale date, condition, distance, size, and reasons to reject or adjust a comp.
Ask the contractor for the itemized bid, work order, duration, permit assumptions, contingency, wiring scope, and costs due before draw reimbursement.
Ask the hard money lender for both sizing tests, appraised ARV, rate, points, term, extension terms, draw stages, fees, and material conditions.
Ask the appraisal district for the tax appraised value.
Ask the insurer for monthly cost, exclusions, deposits, and quote conditions.
Ask the utility contact for monthly costs, deposits, exclusions, and current utility condition.
Ask a rental source for rent, vacancy, repairs, and management assumptions.

Keep Each Source in Its Lane

The listing agent can provide sale evidence. The contractor owns repair scope and timing.

The lender owns the loan constraints and draw process. Keeping these roles separate makes conflicting facts visible.

Ask the closing or title contact for transaction costs, exclusions, deposits, and quote conditions.
Ask the wholesaler for the written assignment-interest disclosure.
Ask the seller for the seller disclosure.
Ask the title contact for commitment exceptions, requirements, liens, restrictions, and taxes.
Ask the relevant flood source for the effective flood map finding and prior flood or insurance history.
Ask the permit contact for permit, red-tag, and final-inspection history.
Ask the inspector for property-condition findings.
Ask the refinance lender for the refinance percent of value, rate, term, and conditions.

That's the evidence-gathering done. Every response now has a source role you can preserve beside the value.

Return to the Deal Notes document from earlier.
Add the relevant role responses to Deal Notes.
Export the updated document as `Deal Notes.docx` into the project folder.
Return to the local `Deal desk.html` file.
Record each accepted comp and its listing-agent source.
Record each rejected or discounted comp with your reason.
Set your learner ARV from the accepted comps.
Enter the contractor bid, sequence, duration, assumptions, contingency position, and draw timing.

What the Comp Review Changes

The learner ARV now reflects the sale evidence you accepted. Rejected comps remain in the record so the decision can be reviewed later.

This turns the ARV into a documented judgment with visible limits.

Enter the hard-money terms with both loan-sizing tests and the lender's appraised ARV.
Enter the tax appraised value as a separate appraisal-district input.
Enter the monthly and transaction costs from their named sources.
Enter the savings amount from the fictional investor position.
Enter a second sale price supported by your accepted comp evidence as the downside case.
Enter the rent and refinance inputs with their named source roles.
Enter `I don't know` for every missing fact.
Add every missing fact to the trace table with an unknown status.

Before the final check, do you expect every deal input to resolve to either a named source or an explicit unknown?

Open the deal calculation summary.
Confirm that the hard-money loan uses the lesser of the two sizing tests.
Review every input row in the trace table.
Open the decision memo export preview.
Open the loan request package export preview.
Open the close-out report export preview.

You should see a named role and response beside every known input. Every missing fact should display `I don't know` instead of zero.

Each report preview should be print-ready and contain a trace table. The model should show both loan-sizing tests, draw timing, the full sale-cost model, a downside sale result, and the keep exit.

Save the fictional selected-house record in `Deal desk.html`.
Create a backup using the deal desk's backup export control.
Save the backup export in the `Underwrite a Houston Fix-and-Flip Deal` folder.

Seeing Zeros or Missing Sources?

Replace any zero used for a missing fact with `I don't know`.
Add the role and response beside each known value.
Keep the tax appraisal separate from the sold-comp ARV evidence.

Ask for help with finding unsupported assumptions in the deal desk.

✔️ My desk is sourced and saved

Your calibrated `Deal desk.html` now holds the selected-house record. The backup and print-ready report previews confirm that the record can move into the decision stage.

ⓧ I'd like to double check the desk

Compare your saved workspace with this checkpoint.

The builder chat contains the complete deal desk brief and work on one self-contained file.
Deal Notes retains the buy box, walk-away rule, prediction, lead screens, selected house, selection note, and relevant source responses.
The project folder contains the updated `Deal Notes.docx` export.
The project folder contains `Deal desk.html` with the sourced fictional record and explicit unknowns.
The project folder contains a backup export produced by the deal desk.
The game master chat contains the source-role responses for comps, repairs, lending, tax, insurance, utilities, title, disclosure, flood, permits, inspection, and refinance inputs.

Your deal desk now turns source evidence into a tested sale and keep model. Next, you'll use it to test the funding gap before making an offer decision.

Fund, Decide, and Offer

Your sourced deal desk now shows the selected house under both exits. Next, you will turn that underwriting into a funding plan.

A profitable model can still fail when loan proceeds arrive after bills are due. Your savings must cover acquisition cash plus repair cash before each lender draw.

In this step, get ready to:

Compare at least three funding choices against peak cash.
Complete a decision memo with your own judgment.
Complete the offer negotiation plus its loan request package without crossing your walk-away rule.

Cover the funding gap

A hard money loan can reimburse repair costs through staged draws. Peak cash is the most money you must supply before those reimbursements arrive.

Switch back to the game master chat in Claude.
Ask the game master for the funding choices available to your fictional investor position.

The game master gives you at least three choices. Each choice includes an available amount plus its cost, terms, and risk.

Return to Deal desk.html from earlier.
Record at least three choices in the funding table with each option's amount, direct cost, repayment or control terms, and risk.
Build the draw-timing table with every cash outflow plus its matching lender reimbursement.

Your table should now expose the highest cumulative cash requirement before reimbursement. This is the amount your funding plan must survive.

Compare the highest cumulative cash requirement with your savings plus each option's available amount.
Select one funding plan that covers the peak requirement without breaking your risk limits.

You should now see one selected plan with enough cash available at the most demanding point in the draw schedule.

Write why the selected plan survives the peak-cash test.
Add the funding comparison plus your chosen-plan rationale to Deal Notes.

Your funding record now shows the choices you rejected plus the timing reason behind the plan you selected.

Export the updated document as Deal Notes.docx into the Underwrite a Houston Fix-and-Flip Deal folder.
Export a fresh deal desk backup into the same folder.

Good progress. Your funding choice now covers the point when the deal needs the most cash instead of relying only on the final cash-in total.

Export and defend the decision memo

The decision memo freezes your recommendation before negotiation can influence it. Its trace table lets the lender follow every important number back to a named source.

Own the judgment

The Recommendation field states whether you buy, counter, or pass.
The Why this works or fails field connects the recommendation to your underwriting.
The Main risk field names the issue most likely to damage the result.
The What would change my mind field states the evidence or terms that would reverse your recommendation.

These four fields preserve your judgment. The builder agent and game master must not write them for you.

Return to the decision memo export area in Deal desk.html.
Generate the print-ready decision memo from the saved selected-house record.

The generated memo should contain your original prediction plus the deal facts already stored in the desk.

Confirm the memo identifies the deal, date, original prediction, and assignment structure.
Confirm the memo separates wholesaler claims from sourced findings.
Confirm the memo shows accepted comps, rejected comps, and your learner ARV.
Confirm the memo shows price, repairs, loan sizing, points, interest, holding, selling, and total cost.
Confirm the memo shows cash in, peak cash, cash short or left, profit, profit on cash, and second-price profit.
Confirm the memo shows your selected funding choice plus two rejected alternatives.
Confirm the memo shows both exit results plus its trace table and unknowns.
Complete all four blank judgment fields in one pass using only your own words.

Export the completed decision memo into the Underwrite a Houston Fix-and-Flip Deal folder.

The exported memo now records the recommendation you made before the wholesaler negotiation.

Predict whether the lender will challenge traceability, cash-to-close, or draw timing.
Switch back to the game master chat.
Paste the completed decision memo into the chat.

The game master now responds as the hard money lender. The final line contains one unanswered lender question.

Check the lender's question against the named sources in your deal desk.
Answer the final question truthfully from those sources.
Reconcile any conflict the lender identifies against the sourced deal record.

Once the lender accepts your answer, your memo has passed its traceability and cash-to-close defense.

Record the accepted answer in the Lender's answer field.
Re-export the completed decision memo into the project folder.

Lender questioning your numbers?

Return to the trace-table row for the questioned number.
Correct the memo when it differs from the named source.
Keep the value as I don't know when no source supplied it.

Get help reconciling the lender's question without inventing a fact.

Negotiate the offer and request the loan

Your opening offer should follow your maximum price plus the risks recorded in the memo. Your walk-away rule remains the boundary throughout the negotiation.

Stay in the game master chat after the lender accepts your answer.
Make an opening offer supported by your maximum price plus your recorded risks.
Respond to each wholesaler counter without crossing your walk-away rule.
Stop the negotiation when you reach an acceptable price or your walk-away boundary.

The negotiation now ends with either an agreed assignment purchase price or a documented pass.

We agreed a price

The agreed assignment purchase price stayed inside your walk-away rule.

Record every offer plus every wholesaler response in Deal Notes.
Enter the agreed assignment purchase price in Deal desk.html.

Your notes and underwriting now carry the same negotiated price.

Export the updated Deal Notes.docx into the project folder.

I passed at my limit

Passing protects the walk-away rule you committed to before seeing the leads.

Record every offer plus every wholesaler response in Deal Notes.
Write the walk-away condition that ended the negotiation in Deal Notes.

Your notes now preserve the complete negotiation without changing your original prediction.

Enter the pass result in Deal desk.html.
Export the updated Deal Notes.docx into the project folder.

What the loan package must prove

The ask states the requested amount, term, rate, and draw structure.
The house section states the assignment structure, property facts, scope, schedule, ARV evidence, and planned exit.
The borrower section contains only the fictional position facts supplied by the game master.
The sources and uses section accounts for acquisition, repairs, closing, points, interest, holding, selling, other funding, lender proceeds, and learner cash.
The testing section shows draw timing, peak cash, each lender threshold, each result, and each trace source.
The risk section shows the downside case plus every unknown and mitigation.

The final trace table ties each value to its source, status, and use.

Return to the loan request package export area in Deal desk.html.
Generate the print-ready loan request package.
Review the package against every requirement in the checklist above.
Replace any unsupported borrower fact with I don't know.
Export the completed loan request package into the project folder.
Export a fresh deal desk backup into the same folder.

The package now gives the simulated lender a complete request without adding experience, cash, assets, income, or other borrower facts that were never supplied.

Predict whether the memo, package, deal desk, and negotiation record will tell the same funding story.
Return to the Underwrite a Houston Fix-and-Flip Deal folder in File Explorer from earlier.
Open the exported decision memo.
Compare its trace table with the saved deal desk.
Open the exported loan request package.
Compare its trace table with the saved deal desk.
Switch back to the game master chat.
Confirm the lender accepted your truthful answer.
Confirm the offer negotiation ended with an agreed price or a documented pass.

That is the funding gate cleared. Your memo, loan request, and negotiation record now tell one traceable story without crossing your walk-away rule.

Your funding plan and offer decision are locked before the outcome is known. Next, you will solve the closing date and run the deal through four decision stops.

Close and Run the Deal

Your offer record now preserves the price boundary you set before the outcome. The game master in Claude is ready to test that plan against a closing calendar plus four execution stops.

Underwriting stays hypothetical until the deal runs. Your deal desk now needs actual timing, costs, decisions, and exit results.

In this step, get ready to:

Calculate the closing date from the stated timing rules.
Make one decision at each of the four execution stops.
Record the final outcome without changing your pre-outcome judgment.

Solve the closing date

A closing-date puzzle tests whether you can turn a timing rule into one defensible date. The game master supplies the facts while you perform the count.

Switch back to the game master Claude chat from earlier.
Start the closing sequence by sending the exact message below:

I am ready to close.

Why start with this message?

This message tells the game master to reveal the closing-date puzzle from its hidden case packet. It keeps the game master in the source role while you own the calculation.

Send the message to the game master.
Wait for the game master to provide the effective date.

You will receive a timing rule plus a weekend or named-holiday condition. You may also receive an extension condition.

Did the closing puzzle fail to appear?

Confirm that you sent the message in the game master chat from earlier. The builder chat does not contain the hidden simulation packet.

If the reply starts building a tool or document, switch back to the other chat. Help me identify which Claude chat contains my game master simulation.

Read the effective date supplied by the game master.
Record the stated timing rule in Deal Notes.
Record the weekend or holiday condition in Deal Notes.
Record any stated extension condition in Deal Notes.
Calculate one closing date yourself.
Write your date count in Deal Notes.

Before you submit the date, do you expect the weekend or holiday condition to move your answer?

Send the calculated date with your count to the game master.
Recalculate the date if the game master rejects it.
Submit the corrected date with revised reasoning.

The game master will confirm the correct date before starting the execution stops. That accepted date is now part of your permanent deal record.

Run and log the four stops

A variance log compares the plan with what happened. It also preserves the decision you made before the next event became known.

What does each stop test?

The wiring stop compares the planned scope with the actual scope. Your response must cover the work plus its funding.

The rehab-complete stop compares planned time with actual time. It also compares planned cost with actual cost before you choose to sell or keep.

The inspection stop tests your response to the buyer's findings. You may repair, credit, contest, or accept the result.

The sale-or-refinance stop tests the chosen exit against current terms. You may close, renegotiate, switch exits, or walk.

Return to the saved Deal desk.html from earlier.
Ask the game master to reveal only the next stop.
Compare the revealed actual fact with the planned fact in the deal desk.
Choose your response before asking for another event.
Enter the stop name in a new variance-log row.
Enter the planned fact in that row.
Enter the actual fact in that row.
Enter your decision in that row.

The row now shows what you expected plus what occurred. Finish its financial record before the game master continues.

Enter the financial effect in the same row.
Enter the game master's source role in the same row.
Save the deal desk.
State your logged decision to the game master.
Wait for the game master to accept the decision.
Repeat this logging loop for the remaining stops.

Keep the event order fixed

Run wiring first. Continue with rehab complete, inspection, then sale or refinance.

Do not let the game master reveal the next event before the current variance row is complete. This protects your decision record from hindsight.

Once the fourth decision is accepted, your variance log contains a full execution trail. You have now turned the original underwriting plan into four documented choices.

Missing a variance-log field?

Check the incomplete row against the event reply in the game master chat. Each row needs a planned fact, actual fact, decision, financial effect, and named source.

Do not invent a missing value. Help me identify the missing variance-log field from the event reply.

Finish the selected outcome

The last path depends on whether your original offer produced a purchase or a pass. Both paths preserve the judgment you made before the outcome was known.

Freeze the pre-outcome record

Keep the original buy box, walk-away rule, prediction, and first selection note unchanged. Keep the decision memo plus loan request package unchanged.

Put actual outcome facts in the deal desk. This separation protects the quality of your original decision from outcome bias.

You bought the deal

Complete the exit you selected at the rehab stop. The game master reveals only the actual facts needed to close that path.

Ask the game master to run your selected exit to completion.
Enter each final actual outcome fact in the deal desk.
Record the selected exit in the deal desk.
Save Deal desk.html.
Export an updated deal desk backup into the Underwrite a Houston Fix-and-Flip Deal folder.

You passed on the deal

The rerun tests the same house from the wholesaler's hidden lowest price. Your original pass remains part of the record.

Ask the game master to rerun the same house from the wholesaler's hidden lowest price.
Run the revealed execution path to completion.
Enter the lowest-price rerun outcome in the deal desk.
Mark the outcome as a rerun after an original pass.
Save Deal desk.html.
Export an updated deal desk backup into the Underwrite a Houston Fix-and-Flip Deal folder.

Return to Deal Notes from earlier.
Add the accepted closing-date calculation.
Add your four execution decisions.
Confirm that the closing reasoning plus all four decisions are visible in Deal Notes.
Export the updated document as Deal Notes.docx into the local project folder.

Before you inspect the finished record, which variance do you expect to explain the largest gap between your plan and the actual outcome?

Count the completed variance-log rows in the deal desk.
Confirm that the rows are wiring, rehab complete, inspection, and sale or refinance.
Inspect every row for its planned fact.
Inspect every row for its actual fact.
Inspect every row for your decision.
Inspect every row for its financial effect.
Inspect every row for its named source.
Confirm that the final actual outcome values match the game master's chosen-exit facts.

You should see exactly four complete variance rows plus the final actual outcome. The game master chat should also show an accepted closing date followed by four completed decision stops.

Strong work. Your deal desk now shows where the plan held, where reality moved, and how you responded before learning the next event.

Does the final record look incomplete?

Compare the four event replies with the four variance rows. A missing stop usually means the game master continued before its row was saved.

Return to the missing event reply. Add only the facts that were actually revealed. Help me reconcile my four event replies with my variance log.

Your simulated exit is complete. Next, you will close the record before comparing your work with the hidden source of truth.

Secret mission

Part 6: Exit, Report and Check

Lock your close-out report before you reveal the hidden answer key. Then audit the original decision without rewriting history. You will finish with a self-score, an exactly 60-word lesson, and one spreadsheet ledger row.

Clean Up Your Resources

Claude Free costs $0, subject to its usage limits. Choose whether to keep your simulation records, pause by closing the chats, or delete the simulation.

Resources you used:

Local Underwrite a Houston Fix-and-Flip Deal project folder with its offline deal desk, backup, notes export, decision memo, loan request package, close-out report, and ledger.
Game master Claude chat containing the simulation record and revealed check.
Builder Claude chat containing the deal desk work.
Deal Notes Claude Doc containing your unchanged decisions and reality check.
Deal desk artifact used to create the working offline file.

Keep everything running

No action is needed. Choose this if you want to retain the full audit trail for later review.

Keep both Claude chats so you can revisit the simulation and hidden packet.
Keep Deal Notes so your pre-outcome reasoning stays separate from the revealed result.
Keep the deal desk artifact so you can continue using the builder output.
Keep the Underwrite a Houston Fix-and-Flip Deal folder so the final reports and ledger remain available offline.

Pause - I'll come back to this later

Close the active views while keeping every simulation record. This leaves the work ready for another review session.

Close the game master chat.
Close the builder chat.
Keep the Underwrite a Houston Fix-and-Flip Deal folder in its current location.
Resume later by opening Deal desk.html from the existing project folder.

Delete - I don't want to use this again

Deletion removes your audit trail from Claude and your computer. Emptying the Recycle Bin completes the local deletion.

Use the game master chat's current deletion control to remove the fictional conversation.
Use the builder chat's current deletion control to remove the builder conversation.
Use the current deletion control for the Deal Notes Claude Doc.
Use the current artifact deletion control to remove the deal desk artifact.
Open File Explorer with Windows logo key + E.
Locate the Underwrite a Houston Fix-and-Flip Deal folder you created earlier.
Remove the folder using File Explorer's deletion control.
Empty the Recycle Bin if you do not want to retain the simulation.

That completes the cleanup. Your fictional simulation records are no longer in Claude or the local project folder.

Nice Work!

You made it! You underwrote a fictional Houston fix-and-flip from initial screen to final review while preserving an auditable record of your judgment.

You can now:

Set a buy box before seeing any leads. You defined a walk-away rule. You used the 70 percent rule as a first-pass screen. You kept wholesaler claims separate from verified facts.
Build and calibrate an offline deal desk. You set an independent after-repair value from sourced sold comparables. You modeled the hard money loan against both sizing tests. You tested draw timing against peak cash.
Defend a funding plan against the peak-cash requirement. You answered the simulated lender with traceable facts. You negotiated within your walk-away rule. You preserved four execution decisions in a variance log.
Secret Mission: Locked the close-out report before revealing the hidden answer key. You judged decision quality separately from outcome luck. You recorded a self-score. You wrote an exact 60-word lesson. You saved one completed spreadsheet ledger row.

Ready to quiz yourself?